[REBOL] Re: My Statistical Thoughts on Monty Hall Problem (non-REBOL)
From: lgidding:aaa:allianz:au at: 20-Dec-2001 10:43
Hi,
Finally thought I'd add my two penneth....
Bruno,
I think your logic might be flawed.....
>Would you switch or not?
>When you did your first pick, you have 1/10000 chances of winning and the
>change that the prize would be in one of the other 9999 doors is
9999/10000.
>In other words, the prize *WILL BE* in a door that is not the one you
choose
>(a 9999/10000 chance is enough to me to say that).
>Now, the other guy excluded 9998 doors and the second group only has one
>door now... But as we saw above, the probabitily that the prize is in this
>second group is 9999/10000. So the probability that the prize is in this
>single door is 9999/10000 and in the door you choose is 1/10000. That's
why
>you *MUST* change to the other door. :)
You appear to believe that the original 1/10,000 chance is still valid
after 9998 the doors have been opened.
Surely like the coin which has no knowledge of its previous toss,
the odds have no knowledge of their previous length.
For example:
Imagine a Roulette wheel with 10000 numbers
I pick no 1 and have a 1/10000 chance
The next time the wheel has reduced to 36 numbers
I still have no 1 but now I have a 1/36 chance
Finally the wheel is reduced to just 2 numbers
I still have no 1 but now I have a 1/2 chance
But my odds, if i swap to no 2, cannot possibly be improved
by my knowledge that 9998 PREVIOUSLY losing numbers
have now been dropped from the wheel.
Just a thought
Laurence
