[REBOL] Re: My Statistical Thoughts on Monty Hall Problem (non-REBOL)
From: bga:bug-br at: 20-Dec-2001 14:07
From: "alan parman" <[reboler--programmer--net]>
> To: Bruno G. Albuquerque
>
> You are assuming the Monty Hall Problem is:
>
> Monty picks one door as winning door.
> You pick one door.
> MONTY OPENS ALL OTHER DOORS.
> Monty asks you to switch or keep.
Hmmm? No, I am not. I am assuming that:
1 - You pick one door.
2 - Monty opens all but one door and shows that all doors he opened has no
prizes in it. In the classic case, "all other doors but one" results in
Monty opening one door.
3 - You ara asked if you want to switch or not.
> I assumed:
>
> Monty picks one door as winning door.
> You pick one door.
> MONTY OPENS _ONE_ UNPICKED DOOR.
> Monty asks you to switch or keep.
>
> I think you'll agree that:
> 1) This a valid interpretation of the three-door problem
> 2) This drastically changes the value of switching from your
interpretation.
In the classic case monty opens one door, yes. I just gave an example to try
to show intuitivelly that the other door is the one with the prize, not
yours (yours had a chance of 1/10000 of being the correct one in my example,
while the chance of the other - remaining - door being the correct one was
9999/10000
-Bruno